UK visa withdrawals jump as universities tighten CAS checks

Line drawing: Big Ben and Parliament, an arrow to a clipboard with three ticked boxes, and a round stamp reading 5%

What happened

Since 1 June 2026, the UK Home Office has held universities to tougher rules under its Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA), an annual check run by UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI). A university now needs a student visa refusal rate under 5% (it was 10%), an enrolment rate of at least 95% (was 90%) and a course completion rate of at least 85%, rising to 90% in June 2027. Missing the top "green" level on any one measure brings penalties.

ICEF Monitor reports, citing the Financial Times, that worried universities are issuing fewer Confirmations of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) and withdrawing some already given to applicants who look likely to be refused. A withdrawn CAS means the visa is never decided, so it does not count against the university.

In January to June 2026, 10.5% of UK study visa applications were withdrawn, against 2.3% a year earlier. For Indian applicants, applications fell 31%, visas issued fell 36%, refusals doubled and withdrawals rose 214%.

University groups, including BUILA and Universities Scotland, say UKVI does not give them timely visa data, and Universities Scotland has proposed changes to the rating system. These are proposals from the sector, not a government decision.

What it means for you

If you plan a UK master's, a CAS is no longer a guarantee: ICEF Monitor reports universities are withdrawing some CAS letters from applicants they think may be refused a visa.
Indian applicants saw visa refusals double and withdrawals rise 214% in the first half of 2026, so a complete, well-documented visa file matters more than before.
The article explains that a withdrawn CAS can come after you have paid a deposit, visa fee and flights, so keeping a backup offer until your visa is granted is worth considering.